Endgame?

An interesting note from the Democratic Party:

Democratic rule-makers meet at the end of this month to decide whether to count delegates from Florida and Michigan; the states were striped of their delegates as punishment for holding early primaries. Clinton won both states but Obama had his name kept off the Michigan ballot and neither candidate campaigned in those states.

What does this mean? There are some interesting possibilities in handling this:

1. Count the votes; but the election would be unfair for Obama was not even on the Michigan ballot.
2. Split the votes giving both the same number of delegates.
3. Give Clinton a 60-40 split in Florida for her ‘win’ there.
4. Either way, the State legislatures of MI and FL screwed up by going against the Democratic Party’s rules. It would put egg on the face of the Demcrats if they were to re-write their rulebook now.

For all of you who love to analyze statistics, here are some interesting statistics and analysis from the recent KY and OR primaries.

With 94 percent of the vote counted in Oregon, Obama was winning by a 59-41 percent margin. Clinton scored a 35-point win in Kentucky after trouncing him by 41 points in West Virginia last week.

Obama won Oregon with the support of men and young people, but also found plenty of votes from blue-collar workers who have the staple of Clinton victories in other states, according to surveys of voters. As a group, only those making less than $30,000 a year and those over 65 favored Clinton. Women were evenly divided between Obama and Clinton, but men voted for Obama 2-to-1.

Altogether, Obama scored a solid win in a heavily white state, a rare achievement in recent races in which blue-collar whites have powered his rival.

Analysis: Obama is beginning to win over blue collar workers; which will come to play in a standoff with McCain. Clinton’s ‘he can’t win the white vote’ is starting to grow old and is sounding, a bit, like either whining or veiled prejudice.

Which leads me to this stat:

In Kentucky, Clinton won two-thirds of women and nearly as many men — altogether, seven in 10 whites, who made up nearly 90 percent of the electorate, exit polls indicated. Clinton prevailed among all age, income and education categories, with particularly large margins among lower-earning and less educated voters.

Clinton can’t win with her policies so she focuses upon the fears of the less educated; a play taken directly from George W. Bush’s playbook. It makes you wonder if Clinton is a Republican in disguise?

So what do all of these numbers mean?

Obama has an overall total of 1,962 delegates, including endorsements from superdelegates. Clinton has 1,779, including superdelegates, according to the latest tally by the AP.

It means that even if Clinton were to overwhelmingly win the next three primaries, she still loses based upon the percentages shown since the PA primary.

So, even if you are as frustrated with this as I am, don’t worry. The end will come soon.